News

MAJOR TURNING POINT

The final wording of the U.S.–Iran Peace Agreement was agreed upon on June 12 · Iran’s foreign minister stated that the MOU could be signed within days · U.S. officials expressed 80% confidence · Oil prices plunged after the announcement: WTI fell from USD 85 to USD 84.88, while Brent dropped from USD 88 to USD 87.33 · The Strait of Hormuz is currently allowing only three vessels per day, with more than 160 oil tankers still waiting · Nine days until Prime Day, scheduled for June 23–26 · 59 days until the EU PPWR takes effect on August 12 · Amazon will enforce country-of-origin compliance requirements from June 30

THIS WEEK’S KEY SUMMARY

During the week of June 8–14, the international energy market reached a major turning point. The U.S.–Iran Peace Agreement is expected to be signed soon, significantly improving the prospects for the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

On June 12, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the final wording of the U.S.–Iran Peace Agreement had been agreed upon. Iran’s foreign minister stated that the memorandum of understanding could be signed within the next few days, while senior U.S. officials expressed 80% confidence that the agreement would be finalized.

By the close of trading on June 13, WTI crude oil had fallen 6.25% for the week to USD 84.88 per barrel, while Brent crude oil declined 7.34% to USD 87.33 per barrel.

CFTC data showed that net speculative long positions decreased by 43,609 contracts to 208,891 contracts, the lowest level in 21 weeks. Saudi Arabia also reduced its July official selling price by USD 6 per barrel, putting additional pressure on the Asian market.

If the agreement is signed as expected, the remaining geopolitical premium of approximately USD 8–12 per barrel in Brent crude oil may disappear within one to two weeks, potentially pushing oil prices down to the USD 76–82 range.

Most chemical raw-material prices in China weakened. The nearby polypropylene futures contract traded at approximately RMB 8,650 per metric ton, with supply and demand remaining broadly balanced and the market undergoing localized consolidation.

The main PVC futures contract traded at approximately RMB 4,880 per metric ton. Prices continued to search for a bottom, while the operating rate declined to 64.92%.

Spot polyester staple fiber prices were approximately RMB 7,860 per metric ton. Supply remained sufficient, and cost support weakened. SBS dry-grade material was quoted at approximately RMB 13,450 per metric ton and remained relatively weak. SEBS was quoted at approximately RMB 17,400 per metric ton and continued to consolidate at weak levels.

Butadiene was quoted at approximately RMB 11,367 per metric ton, down 2.57% for the month. After falling 28% in June, gold rebounded 3% on June 13 to USD 4,220 per ounce.

INDUSTRY UPDATE

Prime Day 2026 is officially scheduled for June 23–26, with only nine days remaining.

IEEPA-related refunds caused May net revenue to turn negative for the first time on record, with refunds totaling USD 21.972 billion.

There are 59 days remaining until the EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation takes effect on August 12. Amazon will begin strict enforcement of country-of-origin compliance requirements on June 30.

India’s 50% tariff remains in place, accelerating the transfer of orders to China.

Weekly Risk Level: Medium to High — The U.S.–Iran agreement has an 80% probability of being finalized, but uncertainties remain. The Strait of Hormuz may require another one to two months to fully reopen, while the PPWR compliance deadline is rapidly approaching.